Scientists are warning that a massive disasters could strike us-regions Bay Area at any moment.
In a new USA Today report, earthquake engineering expert Keith Porter – who works on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired Scenario – provided a detailed look at theoretical calamity.
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The hypothetical scenario was created to make residents “more ready” for the “inevitable” Hayward fault earthquakes.
The USGS scenario website said the last major earthquake in the Golden State was a 6.7 magnitude quake in 1994 and considers what would happen if a magnitude 7.0 earthquake happens on the Hayward fault under current social and economic conditions.
The last major earthquake on the Hayward fault occurred in October of 1868, with an estimated magnitude of 6.8, and the UC Berkeley Seismology Lab notes it was called the “Great Earthquake” until the 1906 7.9 magnitude San Francisco earthquake.
West Oakland, Calif., on Thursday, July 22, 2021.
(Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times via Getty Images)
“Large earthquakes on the Hayward fault have happened before and will happen again. The next time a large earthquake occurs on the Hayward fault, it will share key features and effects with this hypothetical HayWired scenario. For example, the real earthquake will create a different pattern of ground shaking, causing landslides in different locations – but it, too, will cause landslides; the real earthquake will alter the stresses underground in its own way, producing a different set of aftershocks – but it, too, will produce aftershocks that can aggravate the disasters” target=”_blank”>disaster< decades, with a one-in-three chance of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake impacting the Los Angeles area in the same timeframe.
An event like that would likely cause hundreds of deaths and almost $100 billion of damage, the USGS added.
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The Hayward Fault cuts through Alameda County and is partially so dangerous because of its proximity so much of the Bay Area population.
The USGS said that while the state has likely entered a period of high earthquake activity, the damage from a disaster could be reduced significantly with adequate preparation.
Porter noted that aftershocks, a short supply of running water, limited cellphone service and the weeks-long loss of electricity could be just some of the issues people face in the aftermath.
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Like the COVID-19 pandemic, the disaster is expected to highlight inequities, including for the state’s homeless-crisis” target=”_blank”>homeless< as if nobody is coming to help, securing bookshelves, stocking up on water, food and gear, keeping a cash reserve and knowing where the shutoff valve and tool are for the natural gas line.
People can also join a mutual aid network or undergo emergency training to help their community.
Scenarios like the HayWired Scenario help local and state governments in planning a response.
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“We’re trying to have an earthquake without having one,” USGS researcher and HayWire Scenario co-leader Anne Wein told USA Today.
According to NBC Bay Area, a 3.9 magnitude earthquake shook the North Bay on Thursday morning.
