environment may impact the production of corn (maize) and wheat as early as 2030, according to air-and-space researchers.
A new study from the agency published in the journal Nature Food said that under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, maize crop yields are projected to decline by 24% and wheat could potentially see a growth of about 17%.
NASA used advanced climate and agriculture modeling to find the change in yields due to projected increases in planet-earth, rainfall pattern shiftsa> and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.<
The team of scientists used the climate model simulations from the international Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6). They also used the simulations as inputs for Columbia Unversity’s Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) 12 state-of-the-art global crop models.
Each of the five CMIP6 climate models used for this study runs its own response of Earth’s atmosphere to greenhouse gas emission scenarios through the year 2100 and the MgMIP crop models simulate on a large scale how crops grow and respond to environment” target=”_blank”>environmental<. “Wheat, which grows best in temperate climates, may see a broader area where it can be grown as temperatures rise, including the Northern United States and Canada, North China Plains, Central Asia, Southern Australia and East Africa, but these gains may level off mid-century.”
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In addition to temperature shifts, higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will have a positive effect on photosynthesis and water retention and crop yields – though often at a cost to nutrition. This will happen more so for wheat than maize.
The rising temperatures – as well as disasters and disasters – affect the length of growing seasons and accelerate crop maturity.
Crippling disasters and record-breaking temperatures parched the us-regions this summer and scientists say climate change will continue to make conditions more extreme and destructive in coming years.
In a United Nations report released in August, climate experts warned that the planet-earth” target=”_blank”>Earth< that, between now and 2030, the world will emit up to 31 billion U.S. tons of greenhouse gases beyond the amount that would keep the planet at or below the most stringent limit set in the 2015 Paris climate accord.
In addition to contributing to respiratory disease from air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions trap heat, warming the atmosphere.
Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, have fundamentally increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere.
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“We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,” lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and The Earth Institute at Columbia University, said in a statement. The projected maize response was surprisingly large and negative, he said. “A 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide.”
“Even under optimistic climate change scenarios, where societies enact ambitious efforts to limit global temperature rise, global agriculture is facing a new climate reality,” he added. “And with the interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one region’s breadbasket will be felt worldwide.”
The team plans to look at economic incentives like changing farming practices and adaptations in future work.
