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The migrants have been stymied at the belarus”>Belarusian<
Many dissidents and activists, fearing retribution from the regime, fled to Poland and now live in exile. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, considered the legitimate winner in the August 2020 presidential elections, met with Warsaw’s mayor, and Poland has welcomed other political dissidents — moves widely seen in Belarus as provocative.
Additional sanctions were imposed on Belarus in May after a Belarusian fighter jet forced the landing of a Ryanair flight carrying a prominent Belarusian dissident and frequent Lukashenko critic who was subsequently detained. No doubt, Lukashenko’s goal is to pressure Poland into lobbying the EU to lift the crippling sanctions on Belarus. The risky gamble might prove counterproductive, as the international community is weighing more sanctions on Belarus for this man-made humanitarian disaster.
Lukashenko’s exploitation of migrants for his own political gain is further emboldened by closer ties with Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
In this Sunday, Aug. 16, 2020, file photo, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko addresses his supporters gathered at Independent Square of Minsk, Belarus. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky, File)
Although Belarus was once a constituent republic of the former Soviet Union and has close ties to Russia, Minsk has charted a somewhat independent course from Moscow since it gained independence in 1991. At times, Minsk was seen as a neutral arbiter, hosting peace accords in 2014 to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
However, once it became clear Lukashenko was not going to concede defeat in the August 2020 election, he has increasingly relied on support from Vladimir Putin. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki laid the blame for the orchestrated border crisis squarely on the shoulders of Putin. “This attack which Lukashenko is conducting has its mastermind in Moscow, the mastermind is President Putin,” Morawiecki told parliament.
BIDEN SAYS BELARUS-POLAND BORDER CRISIS IS OF ‘GREAT CONCERN’ AS MIGRANT SITUATION WORSENS
Belarus’ manufactured border crisis with Poland fits perfectly into Putin’s confrontational playbook with the West.
“From Putin’s point of view, this makes perfect sense,” John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former Ambassador to Ukraine, told Fox News. “It discomforts the EU and especially Poland and Lithuania, active critics of Kremlin policy, and creates a second crisis at the same time he is intimating a further escalation in Ukraine. The beauty of it is that he claims no responsibility for the Belarus-Poland dust-up but might benefit from it.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting with high-level officers and heads of defense industry enterprises in the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Monday, Nov. 1, 2021.
(Evgeniy Paulin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
As conditions worsen and migrants face brutal subzero temperatures, the dangerous escalation at the Belarus-Polish border is causing a humanitarian crisis that could spark into a wider regional conflict. Poland sent thousands of troops to enforce its border just as Belarus is beefing up its security presence at the border.
The nexus between Poland, a member of the European Union and NATO, and Belarus, a close ally of Russia and a historic adversary of Poland and NATO, makes the border standoff even more tenuous. As a member of NATO, Poland is entitled to Article 5 protection, which states an attack on one member state is an attack on all. Any Belarusian incursion into Poland, due to either provocation or miscalculation, could very well trigger the Article collective defense clause and bring the United States into a confrontation with Russia.
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With the risk of escalation worrying all sides, Belarusian authorities have taken some measures to ratchet down tensions. On Wednesday, border officials began to move some migrants into shelters, but it remains unclear what Lukashenko’s next moves will be.
